NAIROBI, Kenya—Jan 28, 2026—Kenya and several countries in the Greater Horn of Africa should prepare for wetter-than-normal conditions during the March–April–May (MAM) 2026 rainy season, the regional climate body IGAD has warned.
In its latest seasonal outlook released on Tuesday, January 27, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) said there is a 45 per cent likelihood of above-normal rainfall across large parts of the region, raising the risk of flooding in vulnerable areas.
The areas expected to receive heavier rains include central and western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia, and Djibouti.
At the same time, western and eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Kenya, coastal Tanzania, and isolated parts of Somalia, Uganda, and Ethiopia are forecast to experience near-normal rainfall, with a probability of 40 per cent.
Coastal Kenya, however, is likely to remain drier than normal, according to the outlook.
ICPAC Director of Climate Services Abdalla Boman said the season is expected to be marked by significant variability, calling for early preparedness by communities, farmers, and authorities.
“Communities and farmers should prepare for possible heavy rains, but also remain cautious in areas where rainfall may be late or below normal,” Boman said.
While the onset of rains is expected to be normal to early across most of the region, ICPAC noted that localised delays are possible in parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Somalia.
The climate agency cautioned that short dry spells may still occur even in areas projected to receive above-normal rainfall, while intense wet spells could affect locations forecast to receive near- or below-normal rainfall, complicating planning for agriculture and water management.
In addition to rainfall, the forecast points to warmer-than-average temperatures across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with the highest likelihood over Sudan, Djibouti, Tanzania, and parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya.
The combination of heat and heavy rainfall could heighten the risk of flooding, soil erosion, and damage to infrastructure, particularly in low-lying and urban areas.
ICPAC urged governments and local authorities to review disaster preparedness plans, clear drainage systems, and closely monitor rivers and reservoirs ahead of the season.
Smallholder farmers, who rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture, have also been advised to carefully plan planting schedules and crop choices, as excessive rainfall can damage seedlings while delayed rains may disrupt planting cycles.
The seasonal outlook comes as countries across the Greater Horn of Africa continue to face growing climate-related risks, including floods, droughts, and food insecurity, driven by climate change and increasing pressure on land and water resources.
